EUR/USD: negative factors support the downtrendThe EUR/USD currency pair follows a descending channel: the middle of the month showed that the price reached the minimum level of the channel at 1.0600, followed by a correction to the middle line of the Bollinger bands at 1.0725, where the quotes are now located.A corrective increase does not change the overall fundamental mood of the development of events, contributing to the support of a long-term downward trend. The market anticipates a difference in the approaches of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (FRS) to monetary policy, which strengthens the dollar's position against the euro. The ECB is expected to begin lowering interest rates as early as June, while the Fed will postpone these measures until at least September. Recent economic reports confirm the ECB's intentions to ease policy: the consumer price index for April maintained the level of 2.4% per annum, core inflation fell to 2.7%, falling short of the projected 2.6%. Eurozone GDP in the first quarter also showed better results than expected, confirming the economic recovery and a decrease in inflationary pressure, which may lead to a reduction in interest rates soon.Resistance levels: 1.0742, 1.0864, 1.0945.Support levels: 1.0645, 1.0559, 1.0498.GBP/USD: monetary policy strengthens the US dollarOver the past two months, the GBP/USD pair has been in a downward trend: last week was marked by the achievement of the minimum value of this channel, followed by an upward correction to the level of 1.2550. The current rise in the value of the pound is seen as only a short-term phenomenon and is unlikely to change the general vector of movement of the currency pair, as monetary policy continues to strengthen the US dollar. Experts expect that the Bank of England may begin lowering interest rates as early as June or August, despite the unexpected increase in inflation in March to 3.2%, against the projected 3.1%. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve may postpone easing its policy until the autumn. In the worst-case scenario, given the rise in inflation, the American financial regulator may not even reduce the cost of borrowing this year or decide to raise rates.In March, 61.33 thousand mortgages were approved in the UK, which was a record for the last 18 months. The volume of consumer lending increased to 1,577 million pounds compared with 1,429 million pounds a month earlier, and net borrowing by individuals increased to 1,800 million pounds, exceeding forecasts by 100,000 pounds. Despite these data confirming the recovery of the construction sector, the British currency did not receive support due to the cautious position of traders before the upcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve. It is expected that if the US regulator keeps interest rates unchanged, confirming the postponement of monetary policy adjustments until the autumn, the GBP/USD pair may experience additional pressure.Resistance levels: 1.2573, 1.2695, 1.2817.Support levels: 1.2451, 1.2329, 1.2207, 1.2085.USD/CHF: decline of important Swiss economic indicators in AprilThe USD/CHF currency pair is hovering around 0.9126, intending to test resistance at 0.9142 due to the weakening of the Swiss franc against the background of disappointing economic data.Today's report by the Swiss Economic Institute KOF, covering 12 key indicators, including consumer confidence, manufacturing, new orders and the real estate market, pointed to the economic outlook for the next six months. The indicator value for April was 101.8, being lower than the expected 102.1 points, while the previous estimate was adjusted from 101.5 to 101.4 points. Despite this, the nominal wages index increased by 1.7% in 2023, reaching 102.4 points compared to last year. In the context of 2.1% inflation, real wages decreased by 0.4%, and the salary index fell to 96.9 points, which is below the stability threshold of 100 points. In June, the regulator is expected to keep the interest rate at 1.50%, which in the long term may weaken the national currency.Resistance levels: 0.9142, 0.9230, 0.9330.Support levels: 0.9015, 0.8878.NZD/USD: the exchange rate falls to 0.5928 following negative data from New ZealandFollowing disappointing economic indicators from New Zealand, the NZD/USD exchange rate is showing a decline, aiming for a reference point at 0.5928.The April business confidence index, prepared by the ANZ group from Australia and New Zealand, showed a value of 14.9 points, which is significantly lower than the expected 24.0 points and the previous result of 22.9 points. This indicates that business conditions in the country are deteriorating, causing increased sales of the New Zealand dollar and supporting the trend towards its depreciation. Despite the ongoing downward trend, the recent foreign trade report provided temporary support to the exchange rate: March exports increased to NZ$6.50 billion compared to NZ$5.79 billion a month earlier, while import growth stopped at NZ$5.91 billion. This made it possible to achieve a trade surplus again, which amounted to NZ$ 588.0 million.Resistance levels: 0.5981, 0.6005, 0.6069.Support levels: 0.5928, ...
AUD/USD: US dollar is declining against the Australian dollarDuring the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD pair showed growth, reaching 0.6585, thanks to strong macroeconomic support from Australia.The Australian economy has shown significant changes in the structure of prices for exports and imports. In the first quarter of this year, export prices decreased by 2.1%, and on an annual basis - by 8.3%, largely due to a decrease in prices for crude fertilizers and minerals by 58.1%, as well as metals and natural gas by 1.6% and 1.0%, respectively. Import prices fell by 1.8% quarterly and by 0.7% over the year, with the largest drop in prices for oil and petroleum products (-6.4%), electrical equipment (-4.9%) and pharmaceutical products (-3.5%).On the other hand, the US dollar continues its downward trajectory, being at the level of 105.300 on the USDX index. The latest report on the basic index of personal consumption expenditures in the United States showed an increase of 0.3% on a monthly basis and 2.8% on an annual basis, in line with expectations. Incomes and expenditures of the population also increased by 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively. However, recent data from the University of Michigan indicate a decline in consumer optimism, with the expectations index falling to 76.0 and the consumer sentiment index to 77.2. These factors may put pressure on the US currency and support further AUD/USD growth ahead of new economic data and policy decisions.Support levels: 0.6550, 0.6450.Resistance levels: 0.6610, 0.6720.USD/CAD: pair is losing ground, leaving the top of the channel 1.3850–1.3600In the Asian session, the USD/CAD currency pair shows a correction, stabilizing near the level of 1.3641. The latest statistics of the country's labor market have a positive impact on the Canadian currency.According to the latest data, in February there was an increase in the number of salaries to 17.7 thousand, which, however, is less than the January increase of 35.7 thousand. Annual figures also show steady growth: the total number of employees hired increased by 154.7 thousand or 0.9%. In addition, the number of vacancies increased to 656.7 thousand, which is 21.8 thousand or 3.4% more than in the previous period. These data highlight the strengthening of the Canadian labor market, which can play a key role in the country's further monetary policy and have an impact on the Canadian dollar.Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3820.Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3470.USD/CHF: currency pair reaches the top of SeptemberDuring trading, the USD/CHF pair settled at 0.9109, experiencing difficulties with increasing dynamics due to the discrepancy between macroeconomic statistics and analysts' expectations.The latest wage data in Switzerland showed a moderate increase in nominal wages by 1.7% in 2023, reaching 102.4 points compared to the previous year. In the context of current inflation at 2.1%, real wages decreased by 0.4%, and the real wage index dropped to 96.9 points, not reaching the stability threshold of 100.0 points. These indicators highlight the difficulties faced by the Swiss economy in the face of rising prices and put pressure on the exchange rate of the national currency paired with the US dollar.Support levels: 0.9050, 0.8950.Resistance levels: 0.9150, 0.9240.Oil market analysisLast week, Brent Crude Oil prices showed an uptrend, trying to gain a foothold above the 87.50 price level, which corresponds to the fourth Murray mark [4/8]. Both positive economic data and ongoing tensions in the Middle East contributed to the price increase.According to the latest April figures, the composite index of business activity in the eurozone rose to 51.4 points, which, according to analysts, indicates the likelihood of continued economic growth and Germany's exit from recession. At the same time, U.S. GDP growth slowed to 1.6% in the first quarter, falling below expectations, while data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a decrease in reserves by 6.368 million barrels. These factors indicate a possible increase in global oil demand and support price growth.However, a possible settlement of the conflict between Israel and Hamas during negotiations in Cairo, with the participation of the United States, may reduce geopolitical tensions and, consequently, pressure on oil prices. A successful agreement can reduce the risks of supply interruption by influencing price dynamics. An additional impact on the market may be caused by the Federal Reserve postponing the timing of monetary policy easing until the end of the year, which may become known at the upcoming meeting of the regulator.Resistance levels: 88.55, 90.62, 93.75.Support levels: 85.70, ...
EUR/USD: correction before data on consumer confidence in the eurozoneIn the current trading session, the EUR/USD pair is showing cautious growth, continuing the "bullish" trend set at the end of last week. At the moment, the euro is trying to overcome the level of 1.0665, while the market is waiting for new catalysts of movement. The fundamental situation today is predictable: the main attention is focused on the speech of Christine Lagarde from the ECB and the monthly report of the Bundesbank. In addition, investors are expecting data on the April level of consumer confidence in the eurozone, with a slight increase in the index from -14.9 to -14.0 points.An analysis of March statistics on the German producer price index shows an increase of 0.2% month-on-month, reducing annual industrial inflation to -2.9% from -4.1%, which is higher than analysts expected the indicator to stabilize.Resistance levels: 1.0700, 1.0730, 1.0765, 1.0800.Support levels: 1.0660, 1.0630, 1.0600, 1.0561.USD/CAD: currency pair is losing ground from the upper limit of the ascending channel 1.3800–1.3650In the Asian session, the USD/CAD currency pair shows stable performance, being at the level of 1.3725, in anticipation of new economic data.According to the latest report from Statistics Canada, in February there was a decrease in investment in construction: the total volume decreased by 1.1%, to CAD 19.3 billion, including investments in residential complexes fell by 1.2%, to CAD 13.4 billion, and in commercial and industrial buildings — by 0.9%, to CAD 6.0 billion. In the coming hour (14:30 GMT+2), data on March prices for industrial goods are expected to be published, their growth is projected to be 0.8%, as well as an update of the index of the cost of new housing, the estimated increase of which will be 0.1%. The commodity price index is also expected to increase by 2.9%.Resistance levels: 1.3760, 1.3870.Support levels: 1.3690, 1.3560.NZD/USD: increased consumer spending in New ZealandThe NZD/USD pair shows a moderate correction, holding at 0.5912 against the background of stabilization of the US dollar, while the lack of strong support from local economic statistics significantly restrains the growth of the New Zealand currency.A report from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed that March credit card spending reached NZ$3.794 billion, up from February's level of NZ$3.697 billion, but still below the previous year's March figure of NZ$4.018 billion. Despite the growth of the last two months, the current figures still have not reached the levels of the end of the previous year, estimated at 4,200 billion New Zealand dollars.The US dollar, trading at 105.80 in USDX, remains the main factor influencing the dynamics of the pair. The recent report on the decline in sales in the secondary housing market in the United States to 4.19 million from 4.38 million, although lower than expected, supports some optimism, since the figures are better than last year's data (3.78 million). The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will largely depend on future data on the real estate sector, which may delay a possible rate cut if this sector weakens.Resistance levels: 0.5950, 0.6040.Support levels: 0.5880, 0.5790.USD/CHF: Switzerland's March surplus reached 2.8 billion francsThe USD/CHF currency pair demonstrates stabilization of the 0.9122 level, despite positive macroeconomic data from Switzerland.Switzerland's March trade surplus expanded from 2.3 billion to 2.8 billion francs. Exports decreased by 0.6% to 21.1 billion francs, while imports decreased by 3.3% to 18.2 billion francs. In the export segment, there was a decrease in jewelry by 37.2% and watches by 1.5%. Among imported goods, jewelry and chemical and pharmaceutical products showed the largest drop, falling by 18.1% and 6.0%, respectively. These factors put pressure on the Swiss currency, supporting the trend towards strengthening the USD/CHF pair in the context of slowing international trade.Resistance levels: 0.9150, 0.9250.Support levels: 0.9080, ...
EUR/USD: ahead of German March inflationThe EUR/USD currency pair continues to move downwards, continuing the "bearish" trend of the previous day, and approaches the level of 1.0730, updating the minimum values since February 15. With the resumption of active trading after the celebration of Catholic Easter, the dynamics of the market may undergo significant changes.The German consumer price index for March is expected to be presented at 14:00 GMT +2. The monthly inflation rate is projected to rise from 0.4% to 0.5%, indicating a slowdown in the annual inflation rate from 2.5% to 2.2%, which brings it closer to the target level of the European Central Bank below 2%. The harmonized consumer price index with EU standards is also expected to decrease from 2.7% to 2.4%. Investors' attention will also be paid to the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Eurozone, projected at 45.7 points, with the indicator for Germany remaining at 41.6 points and for the eurozone also at 45.7 points.Resistance levels: 1.0760, 1.0840.Support levels: 1.0700, 1.0570.NZD/USD: New Zealand Dollar hits lows since NovemberThe NZD/USD currency pair is showing a moderate decline, continuing its downward trend in both the short and medium term and updating the lows reached on November 17. At the moment, the price is approaching the level of 0.5945, testing its strength downwards, in anticipation of new catalysts of movement in the market.Among the key events that will attract investors' attention today are data on production orders in the United States for February. The indicator is expected to show an increase of 1.0% after a 3.6% drop in January. The market's attention is also focused on the speeches of representatives of the US Federal Reserve System, who can assess the latest business activity data, indicating an unexpected increase in the manufacturing index in March to 50.3 points, exceeding analysts' forecasts, which expected a level of 48.4 points.In New Zealand, data on the dairy product price index is expected to be published today at the Global Dairy Trade auction. The last auction showed a 2.8% decline in the index, which had a negative impact on the New Zealand dollar, emphasizing the importance of this sector for the country's economy.Resistance levels: 0.5975, 0.6000, 0.6030, 0.6049.Support levels: 0.5950, 0.5920, 0.5885, 0.5858.GBP/USD: the probability of continued price decline remainsThe GBP/USD currency pair continues to show negative dynamics during the fourth week, being at the level of 1.2560.Today's trading session was marked by a partial recovery of the lost positions of the pound after the release of encouraging statistics from the UK. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector showed an increase from 47.5 to 50.3 points, reaching the growth zone for the first time since July last year. According to Nationwide Building Society, March was the month of a 1.6% increase in home values, indicating a revival in the real estate market. The report by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) also noted a 1.3% rise in prices in leading retail chains, well below the expected 2.0%. Such signs of economic recovery, combined with the dampening of inflationary pressures, may accelerate the process of adjusting monetary policy by the Bank of England, with an increased likelihood of an interest rate cut as early as May, ahead of the actions of the US Federal Reserve System. This creates long-term prerequisites for maintaining pressure on the exchange rate.Resistance levels: 1.2695, 1.2817, 1.2890.Support levels: 1.2451, 1.2390.USD/CHF: US dollar retains the advantageIn the context of the strengthening of the US dollar and multidirectional macroeconomic statistics from Switzerland, the USD/CHF currency pair showed a corrective movement, remaining at 0.9063.Retail sales in Switzerland for February, seasonally adjusted, showed a decrease of 0.2%. In particular, sales of food, beverages and tobacco products fell by 0.4%, while the non-food sector stagnated. In addition, it is expected that the business activity index from procure.ch Reflecting the mood among purchasing managers and serving as an important indicator of economic expectations, it may rise from 44.0 to 45.0 points, which is unlikely to support the Swiss franc in this trading dynamic.Resistance levels: 0.9090, 0.9210.Support levels: 0.9010, ...
In the Asian session on Monday, USD/CHF is slightly strengthening, testing the strength of the 0.9020 level. Market activity on Monday remains moderate, as European stock exchanges are closed due to the celebration of Catholic Easter.At 16:00 (GMT+2), investors are waiting for the release of the March index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector.: Forecasts from ISM suggest an increase from 47.8 to 48.4, and from S&P Global unchanged at 52.5. In February, the basic indicator of personal consumption expenditures decreased from 0.5% to 0.3% on a monthly basis and from 2.9% to 2.8% on an annual basis, confirming preliminary estimates. Thus, the slowdown in inflationary pressure continues, convincing investors that the Fed will not adjust interest rates in May.On Thursday, the market's attention is focused on Swiss inflation data for March. Forecasts suggest an adjustment of the index from 0.6% to 0.3% on a monthly basis and from 1.2% to 1.4% on an annual basis. The interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank last month was perceived by traders as the beginning of a monetary policy easing cycle.Global analysts suggest a gradual weakening of the Swiss franc this year: economists at Bank of America Corp. It is predicted that the franc will reach parity with the euro (1.00) by September.USD/CHF Technical Analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger bands indicator is rising moderately. The MACD indicator is trying to turn down in a positive area and form a sell signal. The stochastic is decreasing, being just below the middle of the working area.Sales can be opened after breaking down the key level of 0.9000 with a target of 0.8935. We set the stop loss at 0.9037.Long positions can be opened after fixing above 0.9037. The target is 0.9100. We will place the stop loss at ...
USD/CHF: Swiss Central Bank issues Quarterly Economic ReviewWith the strengthening of the US dollar, the USD/CHF currency pair is experiencing a correction, being at the level of 0.9026, and feels the influence of the latest decisions of the Swiss National Bank regarding monetary policy.In the latest quarterly report published by the bank, the main focus was on reducing the interest rate from 1.75% to 1.50% due to the stability of inflationary trends. Economic growth is expected to reach 1.0% in 2024, which corresponds to the current soft direction of monetary policy. Inflation fell to 1.2% in February at an annual level, well below the 2% target limit, and is expected to remain at a similar level throughout the year. The situation in the real estate market is putting pressure, which could potentially lead to a weakening of the Swiss franc in the foreseeable future.Resistance levels: 0.9070, 0.9210.Support levels: 0.8990, 0.8870.USD/CAD: GDP data showed economic growth in the USA and CanadaThe USD/CAD currency pair is at 1.3558, showing a recovery after a fall this week, when the lowest values since March 22 were reached. Market activity is slowing down as the Catholic Easter celebration approaches, leading to the closure of many trading platforms.Today, the US is expected to publish data on the price index of personal consumer spending, which is key for the Federal Reserve System in analyzing inflation and determining monetary policy. The index for February is projected to indicate moderate growth from 0.3% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and from 2.4% to 2.5% year-on-year, with an unchanged base level of 2.8%. Additionally, information on personal income and expenses of Americans for February will be published and a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will take place.Traders are also focused on the latest data on the GDP of Canada and the United States. The Canadian economy showed growth of 0.6% in January, exceeding forecasts and breaking away from a decline of 0.1% in the previous month. U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter of 2023 was adjusted upward from 3.2% to 3.4% on an annual basis.Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3580, 1.3613, 1.3650.Support levels: 1.3524, 1.3500, 1.3450, 1.3400.Platinum market analysisThe trend towards correction in metal prices remains, and this week platinum is holding above the 900.00 mark.A recent report by the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) highlighted the ongoing crisis in the industry. Analysts point out that due to low selling prices, platinum production is expected to decrease by 3.0% in 2024, which will lead to a decrease in total production to 5.489 million ounces - the lowest since 2013. Currently, more than a third of mining companies are operating at a loss, with an average loss per ounce estimated at $148. The WPIC report also highlights that South Africa is losing its attractiveness for investment in the platinum sector, which could lead to a decrease in production in this region by 1.0%.Resistance levels: 920.00, 954.00.Support levels: 900.00, 870.00.Crude Oil market analysisPrices for North American WTI Crude Oil are in the process of a sideways correction, settling at 82.69 amid growing geopolitical tensions.The activity of the Houthis from Yemen, carrying out attacks on international vessels in the Gulf of Aden, continues to create problems for maritime transport through the Red Sea, which puts pressure on global oil supplies. A positive impetus for the growth of oil prices is provided by macroeconomic dynamics: China increased oil imports by 5.1%, reaching 88.31 million tons from January to February, while domestic production in the country increased by 2.9% to 35.11 million tons, and refining volumes increased by 3.0% to 118.76 million tons.In the United States, oil reserves are also stabilizing. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), oil reserves increased by 9.337 million barrels this week compared with a previous decrease of 1.519 million barrels. A similar trend was confirmed by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA), which reported an increase in inventories by 3.165 million barrels after a previous decrease of 1.952 million barrels.Resistance levels: 83.60, 87.00.Support levels: 81.40, ...
AUD/USD: the long-term vector of "hawks" has led to increased pressure on householdsThe AUD/USD currency pair is experiencing volatile dynamics, being near the 0.6540 indicator: Monday's session ended with a noticeable rise, mainly due to technical aspects.The Reserve Bank of Australia's latest semi-annual review, presented on Friday, notes that despite the fact that rising inflation and interest rates have put family budgets at risk over the past two years, most borrowers are still meeting repayment schedules. Since the regulator began raising rates in May 2022, debt service costs have increased by 30-60%. Nevertheless, one in twenty mortgage holders in Australia spends more than they earn, but the share of housing loans with a delay of more than 90 days is less than 1%. The report also highlights that the healthy labor market situation helped to maintain the ability of Australians to pay off debts: in February, the unemployment rate fell to 3.7% compared with 4.1% earlier, and the number of new jobs reached a record 117.0 thousand.Resistance levels: 0.6554, 0.6578, 0.6600, 0.6616.Support levels: 0.6524, 0.6500, 0.6486, 0.6468.USD/CHF: the US dollar checks the 0.9000 level for the possibility of an upward breakoutDuring Asian trading, the USD/CHF currency pair shows a slight strengthening, trying to overcome the barrier at 0.9000, which it sought to gain a foothold on Friday.The US dollar is receiving limited support due to fading assumptions about the imminent transition of the Federal Reserve System to a softer monetary policy this summer: optimistic economic data and additional evidence of increasing inflationary pressures give grounds for the Fed to maintain a cautious course. Now the chances of a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the June meeting are estimated to be slightly above 60%, while a week ago this figure was at 53%.The change in expectations may be due to the recent decision of the Swiss National Bank to lower rates by 25 basis points, despite analysts' forecasts that they would remain at 1.75%. The accompanying document emphasized that inflation has been within the 2% target for several months now, and it is not expected to accelerate in the foreseeable future. In addition, by the end of 2025, the forecast for the consumer price index was adjusted from 1.9% to 1.4%. The market foresees at least two more rate cuts before the end of this year.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9072, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8964, 0.8935, 0.8900, 0.8865.USD/JPY: yen is approaching a record lowIn the context of the strengthening of the US dollar and after the Bank of Japan abandoned the policy of negative interest rates, the USD/JPY exchange rate is gaining momentum, reaching 151.40, and is heading towards exceeding the record mark of 151.90.Traders analyzed the conclusions from the latest minutes of the meeting of the Japanese central bank, at which it was decided to increase the interest rate from -0.10% to 0.10% and adapt the terms of the asset purchase program: continued purchases of government bonds will be carried out without a fixed limit, while operations with ETFs and J-REITs will be stopped. In light of the current decline in the value of the yen, Japanese Vice Minister of Finance Masato Kanda pointed to the speculative nature of this phenomenon, which does not reflect the real economic picture, and expressed his readiness to take all necessary steps to prevent a further fall in the currency. At the same time, the preliminary index of economic indicators for March showed a decrease of 0.4% to 109.5 points, while the inflation rate of production prices remained at 2.1% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month.Resistance levels: 151.95, 154.10.Support levels: 150.60, 148.30.Gold price analysisThe XAU/USD currency pair is stabilizing near the level of 2170.00 after a fluctuating rise a day earlier. Traders refrain from opening new deals, preferring to wait for fresh economic data and statements from members of the Federal Reserve System that can give an idea of the future direction of monetary policy. The main forecast in the market remains the assumption of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in June, although at the moment the probability of such an outcome barely reaches 60%. It is expected that only 3-4 rate corrections will occur this year, but the market is still under the influence of numerous risks.Today, the US is due to publish data on orders for durable goods, where an increase of 1.3% is expected in February after a decrease of 6.2% in the previous month, while orders excluding military and aviation goods may show an increase of 0.1% after stagnation in January. An important indicator for the Fed, reflecting average inflation, will be presented on Friday, when most European markets will not work due to the Easter holidays. The price index of personal consumption expenditures for February is expected to grow by 0.4% after an increase of 0.3% in the previous month, with a possible acceleration in annual dynamics from 2.4% to 2.5%, while the base index may remain at 2.8%.Resistance levels: 2181.30, 2195.12, 2215.00, 2230.00.Support levels: 2164.68, 2150.00, 2134.09, ...
Trading idea for USD/CHF on March 20, 2024During Wednesday's Asian session, USD/CHF updates the local highs of mid-November last year and tests the resistance of 0.8900 for strength.The volatility of currency pairs remains low, as traders are in no hurry to open new positions before the publication of the results of the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve System (Fed), which will be held at 18:00 GMT. Analysts do not foresee changes in the main parameters of the monetary policy of the American regulator, but hope for updated forecasts for economic growth and inflation. Many experts believe that in light of the growing inflation risks, the Fed may postpone monetary policy easing for the second half of the year. According to the Fedwatch Tool, the probability of the first rate cut in June is now estimated at 55%. During the year, analysts expect three rate cuts of a total of 75 basis points. If Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confirms the regulator's cautious approach at today's meeting and expresses the need for more macroeconomic data, the US currency may receive a powerful boost to growth, which will negatively affect the Swiss franc exchange rate. Additional support for the dollar was provided by data on the US real estate market. Thus, the volume of construction of houses started in February increased from 1.374 million to 1.521 million units, which turned out to be significantly higher than expectations of 1.425 million.The meeting of the Swiss National Bank on monetary policy will be held tomorrow. The Swiss regulator also has no plans to change monetary policy, so the interest rate is likely to be maintained at 1.75%. Inflation in Switzerland fell to 1.2% in February, which is the lowest since October 2021. Given that inflation in the United States is significantly higher, American monetary policy will remain "hawkish" longer than in Switzerland. Against this background, the growth of the USD/CHF pair may continue. We issue an orderBuy-Stop 0.8920 Take-Profit 0.9100 Stop-Loss ...
The USD/CHF rate is the ratio of the US dollar and the Swiss franc. Experienced traders call the USD/CHF currency pair "Swiss", which is considered the only franc still issued in the EU.The USD/CHF forecast for today is based on 20 indicators and reflects the strength of the signal on different timeframes. The forecast for USD/CHF is constantly updated, keep track of the date of the last update. The forecast does not contain a specific strategy and reflects a general recommendation based on technical analysis.General characteristics of USDCHFThe USD/CHF currency pair is considered a direct quote, in which the dollar acts as the base currency, and the Swiss franc is quoted.By buying this duet, the investor pays in francs and purchases US dollars on his own account.For example, the USD/CHF rate at 0.8918 implies that 0.8918 francs will be paid for 1 dollar – the USD/CHF quote has 4 decimal places.CHF is an abbreviation of "Confoederatio Helvetica Franc".It reflects the state of the economy of neutral Switzerland as one of the most developed and stable countries in Europe. Switzerland has long been considered the main banking center of the Old World for investors around the world, which still guarantees relative privacy. That is why in the modern world, the banks of this state have the most diverse customer base, in a geographical sense. This fact is already considered a serious prerequisite for the fundamental growth of the Swiss franc, which is periodically influenced by the reporting of exporters.Read more: GBP/CHF: online signals, forecasts for today, analysis & featuresAnalytics and factors of influence of USD/CHF (what do quotes depend on)The state that is the issuer of the Swiss franc has a strong lever of pressure on the USD/CHF exchange rate. Switzerland occupies a special position in the international monetary system.With more than 4,000 reliable banks and being a recognized center of world banking, this state uses its reputation to attract foreign capital.The most leading and major banks in the world are Swiss Credit Suisse and UBS. However, the Swiss economy is not the most popular topic in the world, but traders always follow monetary policy and news from the Swiss National Bank.During periods of crisis, significant cash flows tend to Swiss banks, further spurring the demand for the Swiss franc. Thus, in a state with a stable political system and economy, it is possible to create an ideal business climate.Analysis of the USDCHF The peculiarity of the USD/CHF exchange rate is that the change in quotations by 90% occurs due to the growth or fall of the dollar, since the franc itself has been stable for centuries. Therefore, when making a forecast for USD/CHF, it is important to take into account some important factors that are published in the USA:Reduction/increase of interest rates;Employment in various industries;Number of applications for unemployment;Consumer Demand Index;Decrease/increase in GDP.In addition to financial publications, it is necessary to monitor the reports of the head of the US Federal Reserve, information about emergencies and the political situation in the country. In second place in importance are factors such as:Unemployment indicator;Raw material price levels;Statements by the top officials of the Swiss central bank.Read more: EUR/CHF: exchange rate, online quotes, signals and forecast for todayIt is important to understand that the movement in the market does not appear from the publication of some news fact, but because of the discrepancy between the expectations of investors and the received data. The quotation schedule changes greatly only when the published statement differs significantly from the forecast.USD/CHF was considered a mirror image of the extremely liquid pair of the forex exchange – EUR/USD. A similar trend has been applied by traders to analyze other currency pairs. Despite the actually inverse correlation, USD/CHF responds a little earlier than the rest to economic events in the United States, as if warning the fast tools of the rest of the FOREX market.There is also a downside to this phenomenon: traders with rich experience use pairs such as EUR/CHF and EUR/USD to outperform USD/CHF and speculate on arbitration.For example, there was positive information about the rise of America's GDP. In this case, the national currency of the Americans will begin to grow. This will affect USD/CAD first, then AUD/USD will react and begin to slowly decline. Accordingly, the euro quotes are moving to the British pound, and USD/CHF will be the last to start growing.How best to trade on USDCHFThe USD CHFTRADERS are interested in trading the provided quote for a number of factors:The USD/CHF exchange rate is quite simply predicted, and the results obtained very much justify their expectations;The pair actually has no sudden jumps in quotes, which will have a positive effect on the work of young traders;It is considered one of the most highly liquid pairs.The strong impact on the quotation chart is created by the US dollar, which simplifies the analysis of the instrument for an unprepared investor and gives him a good guideline.Over the past 2 years, traders have been following the sideways movement of the price in the 1000-point corridor. Trading in the USD/CHF side corridor is peculiar, but this greatly simplifies the approaches used in working with this instrument.Read more: NZD/CHF: characteristics, features, signals, analysis & trading forecastsOn average, the USD/CHF exchange rate works out no more than 60 points per day, sometimes 100-120 – but this is a relative rarity. Due to the peculiar liquidity/volatility ratio, when trading USD/CHF, it is better to use simple technical analysis tools – support and resistance lines, indicators and figures.The scalper's work with the USD/CHF instrument will not be able to bring good results for the investor. The 15-minute frame is dominated by a downward trend with low volatility.Firstly, such a trend does not make it possible to earn income on sharp price movements on the stock exchange.Secondly, investors in this situation will not be able to stay in the cache at least once a day and take the proceeds.The most active trading on USD/CHF takes place during the American trading session, when New York connects to European traders. During the Asian and Pacific sessions, movements are minimal.Features of the USD CHF currency pairIt should be noted that the dollar / franc is called a very specific pair. It is not suitable for any trader. Quote trading gives a beginner the opportunity to gain some experience, but do not take this pair as a quick way to earn good interest. As the most characteristic features of USD/CHF, it should be noted:Increased liquidity and low volatility;Small profit potential in short- and ultra-short-term trading;A strong dependence on the financial statistics of Americans;The probability of applying a quote as an indicator of parsing to other pairs.Until January 15, 2015, the Swiss government maintained a tight peg of its currency to the euro. The moment when the franc was sent to "free float" was a surprise and in many ways a tragic event for traders who are in long positions with shoulders on the USD/CHF position.The breakthrough in the moment was more than 25%.Read more: USD/JPY: chart, forecast for today, currency pair overviewOn that day, negative amounts appeared on the accounts of some players, which are a consequence of the fact that risk managers physically could not have time to carry out the margin call procedure, not to mention the usual stop orders.Transactions collapsed at current prices with a huge delay, which caused even greater panic.In many ways, the situation was saved by the fact that most FOREX brokers insure their clients' deposits against a negative balance. In the end, no one owed their brokers, but traders still remember this day as the worst dream of their career. On the other hand, some traders have become permanently rich by simply taking the opposite short position before this ill-fated day. By the way, this situation with failed stops is impossible when trading and hedging positions with ...
