EUR/USD: Euro stabilizes near the 1.0830 levelDuring the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair shows consolidation near the 1.0830 level. After moderate growth on Friday, the euro moved to a decline by the end of the week, helped by new data on the American labor market.March statistics showed an increase in the number of jobs outside the US agricultural sector to 303 thousand, which significantly exceeded the previous figure of 270 thousand and analysts' expectations, which assumed an increase of 200 thousand. The unemployment rate decreased from 3.9% to 3.8%, while the average hourly wage accelerated from 0.2% to 0.3% on a monthly basis and decreased from 4.3% to 4.1% on an annual basis. Despite the strengthening of the labor market, this may force the US Federal Reserve to continue its cautious monetary policy.Meanwhile, European economic indicators released on Friday were below expectations. Production orders in Germany rose slightly by 0.2% after falling by 11.4% a month earlier, falling short of the projected level of 0.8%. Retail sales in the eurozone fell by 0.5% compared with zero change in January, while a decrease of 0.4% was expected. The annual sales dynamics improved from -0.9% to -0.7%, ahead of forecasts of -1.3%. These weak indicators reflect the pressure that inflation and high interest rates from the European Central Bank are putting on consumer demand and household budgets.Resistance levels: 1.0842, 1.0863, 1.0900, 1.0930.Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0730.USD/JPY: the head of the Central Bank of Japan assessed the prospects for the growth of national inflationDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/JPY pair showed a bullish trend, reaching the level of 151.82 after Friday's data, which increased investors' doubts about the possibility of lowering rates by the US Federal Reserve at the June meeting. The report of the US Department of Labor showed an increase in the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector by 303 thousand, which significantly exceeded the forecast of 200 thousand, and a revision of February data from 275 thousand to 270 thousand. The unemployment rate decreased from 3.9% to 3.8%, while analysts did not expect changes, and the average hourly wage rose from 0.2% to 0.3% on a monthly basis, although it slowed from 4.3% to 4.1% year-on-year.Friday's data from Japan was mixed: household spending decreased by 0.5% after falling by 6.3% a month earlier, against expectations of a decline of 3.0%. The index of leading indicators rose from 108.5 to 111.8 points, exceeding expectations of 111.6 points, while the index of matching indicators fell from 112.1 to 110.9 points. Recently published data showed an improvement in the balance of payments from 457 billion yen to 2444.2 billion yen, below the forecast of 3112.5 billion yen, and average wages increased from 1.5% to 1.8%, which may affect inflation expectations. The Eco Watchers index on the current situation fell from 51.3 to 49.8 points, and the forecast of events decreased from 53 to 51.2 points.Kazuo Ueda, the governor of the Bank of Japan, said last week that inflation could accelerate by autumn due to wage growth, the highest in the last 33 years, agreed with trade unions last month. Investors took this as a signal of a possible interest rate adjustment, recalling that on March 19, the rate was raised for the first time since 2016 from -0.10% to a range of 0.00%-0.10%. Ueda stressed that the 2.0% inflation target has not yet been reached, and that high import costs continue to affect prices, while the weakening yen may become an additional factor influencing any decision to increase borrowing costs.Resistance levels: 152.00, 152.50, 153.00, 153.50.Support levels: 151.50, 151.00, 150.50, 150.00.USD/CAD: the Bank of Canada considers the anonymity of the CBDC the key to the success of the digital currencyDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair is actively testing the 1.3600 level, trying to gain a foothold above this mark. The end of last week was marked by exceeding this limit and updating the November highs, although by Friday the pair had declined, despite the positive data from the American macroeconomics.On the other hand, the employment situation in Canada turned out to be less favorable: the number of jobs decreased by 2.2 thousand, while an increase of 40.7 thousand was previously recorded, and an increase of 25.0 thousand was predicted. The unemployment rate increased from 5.8% to 6.1%, higher than the expected 5.9%, and the average hourly wage increased from 4.9% to 5.0%. However, the March Ivey business activity index rose from 53.9 to 57.5 points, exceeding analysts' expectations of 54.2 points.A Bank of Canada report titled "CBDC: Banking and Anonymity" highlights that privacy will be an important aspect for users with the possible introduction of the digital Canadian dollar. It will also attract the attention of banks, which may consider not including such transactions in financial statements, thereby creating problems for regulators when assessing the creditworthiness of companies. In turn, commercial banks may seek to reduce the anonymity of the digital currency to reduce credit risks, which will require stricter credit standards to achieve balance.Resistance levels: 1.3616, 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750.Support levels: 1.3580, 1.3550, 1.3524, 1.3500.AUD/USD: Australia's industrial sector continues to be under pressureThe AUD/USD currency pair remains stable at 0.6576, as it was last week, against the background of a temporary weakening of the US dollar and optimistic economic data from Australia.In February, an increase in the total amount of new housing loans was recorded by 1.2%, and an annual comparison showed an increase of 21.5%. During the month, the number of loans issued to owners renting housing increased by 0.9%, while loans for the purchase of new housing increased by 4.3%. The cost of loans for new tenants was 9.1% higher than in February of the previous year, and 20.7% more for first-time home buyers. However, exports decreased from 1.5% to -2.2%, and imports increased from 1.4% to 4.8%, which led to a reduction in the trade surplus from 10.058 billion Australian dollars to 7.280 billion. These data reflect ongoing pressure on the industrial sector, but also point to the potential for increased domestic consumption.Resistance levels: 0.6600, 0.6720.Support levels: 0.6550, ...
AUD/USD: US dollar is declining against the Australian dollarDuring the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD pair showed growth, reaching 0.6585, thanks to strong macroeconomic support from Australia.The Australian economy has shown significant changes in the structure of prices for exports and imports. In the first quarter of this year, export prices decreased by 2.1%, and on an annual basis - by 8.3%, largely due to a decrease in prices for crude fertilizers and minerals by 58.1%, as well as metals and natural gas by 1.6% and 1.0%, respectively. Import prices fell by 1.8% quarterly and by 0.7% over the year, with the largest drop in prices for oil and petroleum products (-6.4%), electrical equipment (-4.9%) and pharmaceutical products (-3.5%).On the other hand, the US dollar continues its downward trajectory, being at the level of 105.300 on the USDX index. The latest report on the basic index of personal consumption expenditures in the United States showed an increase of 0.3% on a monthly basis and 2.8% on an annual basis, in line with expectations. Incomes and expenditures of the population also increased by 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively. However, recent data from the University of Michigan indicate a decline in consumer optimism, with the expectations index falling to 76.0 and the consumer sentiment index to 77.2. These factors may put pressure on the US currency and support further AUD/USD growth ahead of new economic data and policy decisions.Support levels: 0.6550, 0.6450.Resistance levels: 0.6610, 0.6720.USD/CAD: pair is losing ground, leaving the top of the channel 1.3850–1.3600In the Asian session, the USD/CAD currency pair shows a correction, stabilizing near the level of 1.3641. The latest statistics of the country's labor market have a positive impact on the Canadian currency.According to the latest data, in February there was an increase in the number of salaries to 17.7 thousand, which, however, is less than the January increase of 35.7 thousand. Annual figures also show steady growth: the total number of employees hired increased by 154.7 thousand or 0.9%. In addition, the number of vacancies increased to 656.7 thousand, which is 21.8 thousand or 3.4% more than in the previous period. These data highlight the strengthening of the Canadian labor market, which can play a key role in the country's further monetary policy and have an impact on the Canadian dollar.Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3820.Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3470.USD/CHF: currency pair reaches the top of SeptemberDuring trading, the USD/CHF pair settled at 0.9109, experiencing difficulties with increasing dynamics due to the discrepancy between macroeconomic statistics and analysts' expectations.The latest wage data in Switzerland showed a moderate increase in nominal wages by 1.7% in 2023, reaching 102.4 points compared to the previous year. In the context of current inflation at 2.1%, real wages decreased by 0.4%, and the real wage index dropped to 96.9 points, not reaching the stability threshold of 100.0 points. These indicators highlight the difficulties faced by the Swiss economy in the face of rising prices and put pressure on the exchange rate of the national currency paired with the US dollar.Support levels: 0.9050, 0.8950.Resistance levels: 0.9150, 0.9240.Oil market analysisLast week, Brent Crude Oil prices showed an uptrend, trying to gain a foothold above the 87.50 price level, which corresponds to the fourth Murray mark [4/8]. Both positive economic data and ongoing tensions in the Middle East contributed to the price increase.According to the latest April figures, the composite index of business activity in the eurozone rose to 51.4 points, which, according to analysts, indicates the likelihood of continued economic growth and Germany's exit from recession. At the same time, U.S. GDP growth slowed to 1.6% in the first quarter, falling below expectations, while data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a decrease in reserves by 6.368 million barrels. These factors indicate a possible increase in global oil demand and support price growth.However, a possible settlement of the conflict between Israel and Hamas during negotiations in Cairo, with the participation of the United States, may reduce geopolitical tensions and, consequently, pressure on oil prices. A successful agreement can reduce the risks of supply interruption by influencing price dynamics. An additional impact on the market may be caused by the Federal Reserve postponing the timing of monetary policy easing until the end of the year, which may become known at the upcoming meeting of the regulator.Resistance levels: 88.55, 90.62, 93.75.Support levels: 85.70, ...
AUD/USD: market is anticipating the Australian inflation report for the quarterThe AUD/USD pair is experiencing a moderate rise, continuing the positive trend started yesterday, and is striving to exceed the value of 0.6450, updating the highs since April 15 against the background of current economic indicators.The index of manufacturing activity in Australia from S&P Global increased from 47.3 to 49.9 points in April, while the indicator in the service sector from Commonwealth Bank fell slightly from 54.4 to 54.2 points. The composite index showed an increase from 53.3 to 53.6 points. With the start of trading in the United States, data on similar indices are expected on the market: it is predicted that in the manufacturing sector the indicator will increase from 51.9 to 52.0 points, and in services it will also reach 52.0 points. In Australia, the quarterly inflation report is also due to be published this week, where the consumer price index is expected to accelerate from 0.6% to 0.8% of quarterly growth and decrease annual inflation from 4.1% to 3.4%.Resistance levels: 0.6456, 0.6480, 0.6500, 0.6524.Support levels: 0.6420, 0.6388, 0.6361, 0.6300.USD/CAD: currency pair stabilizes at 1.3700The USD/CAD pair shows volatile trends at 1.3700 during the Asian session, maintaining the pace of the recent bearish trend, which led to lows since April 12.Positive economic signals came from the United States, where the March activity index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago rose to 0.15 points from 0.09. In Canada, meanwhile, new home prices remained unchanged after rising 0.1% in the previous month, and the growth rate of the industrial goods price index slowed to 0.8%, in line with forecasts.This week, the market's attention is focused on the American economy: on Thursday, the publication of primary GDP data for the first quarter is expected, which may show a slowdown in economic growth to 2.5% from 3.4%. On Friday, the key event will be an update on the personal consumption expenditure index, an important inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, presumably showing an acceleration of the base value to 0.3% monthly and a slowdown to 2.6% on an annual basis.Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3800, 1.3853.Support levels: 1.3650, 1.3616, 1.3580, 1.3550.USD/JPY: increased business activity in Japan in AprilThe USD/JPY pair holds positions in the horizontal range around 154.72, while the US dollar shows signs of slowing down.Without intervening directly, the Bank of Japan continues to monitor the market situation, despite a number of minor interventions that were quickly smoothed out by the market. After switching from a policy of negative interest rates to a range of 0.0–0.1%, the regulator emphasizes that it will maintain a soft monetary policy due to weakening inflation.The upcoming macroeconomic publications will attract additional attention of investors: in April, the business activity index in the Japanese manufacturing sector rose to 49.9, and the index in the service sector improved to 54.6. March inflation statistics showed a drop: the general consumer price index fell to 2.7%, and the base index to 2.9%. On Friday, data on April inflation in Tokyo and the meeting of the Bank of Japan are expected, which may affect the policy of currency intervention.Resistance levels: 155.10, 156.80.Support levels: 153.90, 151.80.Analysis for GoldThe price of gold is experiencing a noticeable drop, deepening into the "bearish" trend that began in the previous days: at the moment, gold is struggling with the support level of $ 2310.00 per ounce, reaching lows that have not been observed since April 5. The downturn is fueled by a decrease in tensions in the Middle East and expectations that the US Federal Reserve will not adjust its monetary policy until the fall, perhaps even until the end of 2024.Nevertheless, there is activity in the gold futures market. According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the volume of net speculative positions fell from 202.4 thousand to 201.9 thousand last week. The number of positions backed by cash reached 198,276 thousand for bulls and 25,415 thousand for bears. Over the past seven days, the volume of purchases decreased by 10,357 thousand contracts, while sales decreased by 4,078 thousand, indicating continued asset sales among market participants.Resistance levels: 2320.00, 2336.50, 2353.79, 2375.00.Support levels: 2300.00, 2285.00, 2265.52, ...
EUR/USD: correction before data on consumer confidence in the eurozoneIn the current trading session, the EUR/USD pair is showing cautious growth, continuing the "bullish" trend set at the end of last week. At the moment, the euro is trying to overcome the level of 1.0665, while the market is waiting for new catalysts of movement. The fundamental situation today is predictable: the main attention is focused on the speech of Christine Lagarde from the ECB and the monthly report of the Bundesbank. In addition, investors are expecting data on the April level of consumer confidence in the eurozone, with a slight increase in the index from -14.9 to -14.0 points.An analysis of March statistics on the German producer price index shows an increase of 0.2% month-on-month, reducing annual industrial inflation to -2.9% from -4.1%, which is higher than analysts expected the indicator to stabilize.Resistance levels: 1.0700, 1.0730, 1.0765, 1.0800.Support levels: 1.0660, 1.0630, 1.0600, 1.0561.USD/CAD: currency pair is losing ground from the upper limit of the ascending channel 1.3800–1.3650In the Asian session, the USD/CAD currency pair shows stable performance, being at the level of 1.3725, in anticipation of new economic data.According to the latest report from Statistics Canada, in February there was a decrease in investment in construction: the total volume decreased by 1.1%, to CAD 19.3 billion, including investments in residential complexes fell by 1.2%, to CAD 13.4 billion, and in commercial and industrial buildings — by 0.9%, to CAD 6.0 billion. In the coming hour (14:30 GMT+2), data on March prices for industrial goods are expected to be published, their growth is projected to be 0.8%, as well as an update of the index of the cost of new housing, the estimated increase of which will be 0.1%. The commodity price index is also expected to increase by 2.9%.Resistance levels: 1.3760, 1.3870.Support levels: 1.3690, 1.3560.NZD/USD: increased consumer spending in New ZealandThe NZD/USD pair shows a moderate correction, holding at 0.5912 against the background of stabilization of the US dollar, while the lack of strong support from local economic statistics significantly restrains the growth of the New Zealand currency.A report from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed that March credit card spending reached NZ$3.794 billion, up from February's level of NZ$3.697 billion, but still below the previous year's March figure of NZ$4.018 billion. Despite the growth of the last two months, the current figures still have not reached the levels of the end of the previous year, estimated at 4,200 billion New Zealand dollars.The US dollar, trading at 105.80 in USDX, remains the main factor influencing the dynamics of the pair. The recent report on the decline in sales in the secondary housing market in the United States to 4.19 million from 4.38 million, although lower than expected, supports some optimism, since the figures are better than last year's data (3.78 million). The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will largely depend on future data on the real estate sector, which may delay a possible rate cut if this sector weakens.Resistance levels: 0.5950, 0.6040.Support levels: 0.5880, 0.5790.USD/CHF: Switzerland's March surplus reached 2.8 billion francsThe USD/CHF currency pair demonstrates stabilization of the 0.9122 level, despite positive macroeconomic data from Switzerland.Switzerland's March trade surplus expanded from 2.3 billion to 2.8 billion francs. Exports decreased by 0.6% to 21.1 billion francs, while imports decreased by 3.3% to 18.2 billion francs. In the export segment, there was a decrease in jewelry by 37.2% and watches by 1.5%. Among imported goods, jewelry and chemical and pharmaceutical products showed the largest drop, falling by 18.1% and 6.0%, respectively. These factors put pressure on the Swiss currency, supporting the trend towards strengthening the USD/CHF pair in the context of slowing international trade.Resistance levels: 0.9150, 0.9250.Support levels: 0.9080, ...
EUR/USD: economic mood in the eurozone improved to 43.9 pointsThe EUR/USD currency pair is showing moderate strengthening, recovering from a strong bearish trend that began last week and led to an update of the minimum values since November 2 of the previous year. The pair has now tested the 1.0625 level, waiting for new catalysts to move.The euro is supported by the latest data from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW): the index of economic sentiment in the eurozone increased from 33.5 to 43.9 points in April, which significantly exceeded analysts' expectations of 37.2 points and was the highest result since the spring of 2022. This strengthens expectations of an improvement in the economic situation in the next six months. In addition, the region's trade balance showed a surplus of 23.6 billion euros, almost doubling compared to January, due to an increase in exports of cars and equipment, as well as due to a decrease in energy imports. Today, data on the German wholesale price index for March were also presented, which remained at the level of 0.2% monthly growth, which exceeded analysts' expectations for a decrease to -0.1%, and the annual figure was -3.0%.Resistance levels: 1.0630, 1.0660, 1.0700, 1.0730.Support levels: 1.0600, 1.0561, 1.0530, 1.0500.USD/JPY: stabilization at historically high levelsThe USD/JPY currency pair shows mixed trends, holding near the level of 154.60. Buyer activity remains significant, but new positions are being opened cautiously in anticipation of potential interventions from the Bank of Japan. The regulator expressed concern about the speculative weakening of the yen, which, despite the recent interest rate increase, did not lead to a strengthening of the currency due to bias towards a soft monetary policy. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki confirmed that the monetary authorities are ready for decisive measures to stabilize the yen.Support for the Japanese currency also came from trade data for March: exports increased by 7.3%, despite a slight slowdown compared to February, and imports decreased by 4.9%, resulting in a trade surplus of 366.5 billion yen. In the US, on the contrary, the March data on the construction sector turned out to be less satisfactory: building permits fell by 4.3%, and the start of new construction decreased by 14.7%, which further weakened the dollar against the yen.Resistance levels: 155.00, 155.50, 156.00, 156.50.Support levels: 154.50, 154.00, 153.50, 153.00.USD/CAD: US dollar continues to dominate the currency pairThe USD/CAD currency pair is experiencing a correction, stabilizing at 1.3820 amid the activity of the US dollar and ambiguous Canadian economic statistics.March inflation data in Canada showed a 0.6% monthly increase in consumer prices and an increase in the annual index from 2.8% to 2.9%. However, the base index excluding food and energy prices showed a 0.5% monthly change and a decrease from 2.1% to 2.0% per annum, which was in line with market expectations.On the other hand, the US dollar reached a high level of 106.10 on the USDX index, which was confirmed by retail sales data. Sales in the United States increased by 0.7% monthly in March, exceeding analysts' expectations of 0.4%, and accelerated significantly year-on-year from 2.11% to 4.02%. Underlying sales also showed an increase from 0.6% to 1.1%. In addition, industrial production increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis and recovered to the level of 0.00% per annum after a previous decrease of 0.30%, which adds dynamism to the US dollar in the market.Resistance levels: 1.3850, 1.3960.Support levels: 1.3780, 1.3610.GBP/USD: analysis for the quarterWe present an analysis of the investment prospects of the GBP/USD pair for the medium term.The UK continues to experience economic difficulties caused by persistently high inflation. The actions of the Bank of England to stabilize it have not yet brought the expected result, and the current fluctuations in the pound are due to falling electricity prices on the stock market. Nevertheless, given the recent rise in oil prices, it is possible that the value of the pound will resume rising. The interest rate set by the regulator at 5.25% is likely to be supported at the next meeting on May 9, according to experts' forecasts. The consumer price index in March showed a decrease to 3.2% from 3.4%, and the main index excluding the cost of food and fuel remained at 4.2%. The pound is also feeling pressure from the retail sector: the core retail sales index increased by only 0.2% in February after rising by 3.4% a month earlier and fell by 0.5% in annual terms after an increase of 0.5% in the previous month. At the same time, the volume of retail sales in February remained unchanged, which led to an annual decline of 0.4%, and the GDP indicator for the same period decreased from 0.3% to ...
USD/CAD analysis on April 17, 2024USD/CAD is adjusted near the level of 1.3820 against the background of changes in the dynamics of the US dollar, while Canadian macroeconomic statistics did not support the national currency.Thus, in March, the consumer price index increased by 0.6% on a monthly basis and from 2.8% to 2.9% on an annual basis, and the base indicator, excluding food and fuel prices, adjusted by 0.5% (mom) and from 2.1% to 2.0% (YoY), which corresponds to according to analysts' forecasts.The US dollar index reached a record high of 106.10 after the publication of March retail sales data. The volume increased by 0.7% on a monthly basis, exceeding preliminary estimates by 0.4%, and jumped from 2.11% to 4.02% on an annual basis, while the base value accelerated from 0.6% to 1.1%. In addition, industrial production over the same period increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis and moved out of the negative zone to zero.On the daily chart, USD/CAD moves away from the resistance line of the ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.3750–1.3500.Technical indicators on Daily confirm the purchase/ the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator expands upwards, and the histogram of the awesome oscillator indicator forms corrective bars above the neutral level.Long positions can be opened after the price is fixed above 1.3850. The nearest target will be 1.3960. We set the stop loss at 1.3800.Sales will be relevant after the price is fixed below the support level of 1.3780. Here, the target is 1.3610. We place the stop loss at ...
EUR/USD: euro continues the bearish trend that began last weekDuring the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair is testing the level of 1.0614, continuing the "bearish" trend that began in the middle of the previous week. Then the euro fell from a peak of 1.0885, not finding support in the latest macroeconomic data.In February, the indicator of industrial production in monthly terms was adjusted from -3.0% to 0.8%, and in annual terms from -6.6% to -6.4%. The March wholesale price index in Germany remained at the level of the previous month (+0.2%), maintaining an annual decline of -3.0%. Today at 11:00 GMT (+2), the report of the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) on the current state of the German economy is expected to be published, the indicator is projected to improve from -80.5 to a higher level, and the index of economic sentiment may rise from 31.7 to 35.9 points. On Wednesday, key data on consumer inflation in the eurozone for March will come to the market, it is expected that they will confirm the previous level of 0.8% monthly growth and 2.4% annual growth. Representatives of the European Central Bank, including ECB President Christine Lagarde, are also scheduled to speak on this day.Resistance levels: 1.0656, 1.0790.Support levels: 1.0590, 1.0460.USD/CAD: reaching new peaks before the release of Canadian inflation dataThe USD/CAD currency pair is showing unstable growth, trying to overcome the 1.3800 level. Market activity on Tuesday morning remains limited in anticipation of new inflation data in Canada, which is due to be published at 14:30 GMT (+2). The monthly consumer price index for March is projected to increase from 0.3% to 0.7%, and the annual inflation rate will increase from 2.8%.The core inflation indicators from the Bank of Canada remain close to the target values, with the February core inflation rate at 2.1% per annum. The expected statistics on the number of new buildings in Canada started in the reporting month — an important indicator for the country's construction sector - also attracts attention. It is expected that the number of construction projects started will increase from 223.6 thousand to 227.0 thousand, which will potentially strengthen the Canadian dollar.The day promises to be full of speeches by key monetary policy figures, including Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell and head of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem, who can comment on the current policy prospects of their institutions. Market expectations regarding the reduction of interest rates in the United States tend to the fact that the Fed will maintain current rates in June, with a possible easing only by September, with a forecast of only two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2024, instead of three, as previously assumed.Resistance levels: 1.3800, 1.3853, 1.3900, 1.3950.Support levels: 1.3750, 1.3700, 1.3650, 1.3616.GBP/USD: pound stabilized at the low levels of November 2023The GBP/USD currency pair is experiencing a moderate decline, stabilizing around the level of 1.2430, which corresponds to the low values recorded on November 17, 2023.The British currency is currently under pressure from the latest data on the state of the UK labor market: the unemployment rate over the past three months has increased from 4.0% to 4.2%, the employment rate has decreased by 156.0 thousand, which turned out to be worse than the previous value of -89.0 thousand, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits in March increased from 4.1 thousand to 10.9 thousand, although it turned out to be lower than the expected 17.2 thousand. At the same time, the average salary, including bonuses, increased by 5.6% in February, exceeding forecasts of 5.5%.On Wednesday at 8:00 GMT (+2), inflation data for March is expected to be published in the UK: the annual consumer price index is projected to decrease from 3.4% to 3.1%, and the monthly increase by 0.6%. The core index, which does not take into account food and energy, may decrease from 4.5% to 4.1%, which will strengthen market expectations regarding a possible reduction in interest rates by the Bank of England. The retail price index is projected to fall from 4.5% to 4.2%. Last week, Megan Green, a member of the bank's board, warned investors that the transition to a softer monetary policy would take time, given the high rate of price growth in the service sector. A number of representatives of the British central bank, including its chairman Andrew Bailey, are expected to speak tomorrow to discuss the latest economic data.Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2500, 1.2539, 1.2573.Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2350, 1.2300, 1.2261.NZD/USD: significant potential for strengthening the fall of the currency pairThe NZD/USD currency pair has fallen below the support level of 0.5946 and is moving towards 0.5865 amid the strengthening of the US dollar against major currencies after the release of positive macroeconomic data.Traders will closely monitor the release of data on the New Zealand consumer price index for the first quarter, which will be published on Wednesday at 00:45 GMT+2. The index is expected to show growth of 0.6% in the quarter. If the data is confirmed, the New Zealand dollar may recover to the level of 0.5946. In case of negative developments, the NZD/USD will continue to decline to the next support level of 0.5865, overcoming which will open the way to the level of 0.5789.Resistance levels: 0.5946, 0.6005, 0.6069.Support levels: 0.5865, ...
NZD/USD: the growth rate slowed down before the meeting of the Reserve Bank of New ZealandSince the beginning of April, the NZD/USD currency pair has been trying to adjust within the medium-term downtrend. At the moment, the growth of the currency has slowed down at 0.6042 (Murray level [2/8]), in anticipation of the results of the upcoming meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the upcoming publication of data on March inflation in the United States, scheduled for Wednesday.The New Zealand central bank is expected to keep its main interest rate at 5.50%, despite a significant deterioration in economic conditions and the onset of recession at the end of last year. The regulator is likely to emphasize that the inflation rate in the country is still too high, and announce plans to begin easing monetary policy no earlier than 2025, contrary to the expectations of investors, some of whom hope for a rate cut in August. Although such news may temporarily support the growth of NZD/USD, a significant increase in the value of the currency is not expected.Resistance levels: 0.6042, 0.6073, 0.6103.Support levels: 0.6012, 0.5950, 0.5920.USD/CAD: pressure on the Canadian labor market continuesAgainst the background of stabilization of the US dollar and disappointing macroeconomic statistics from Canada, the USD/CAD currency pair is at 1.3576.In March, the Canadian unemployment rate rose from 5.8% to 6.1%, exceeding analysts' expectations, which had predicted an increase to only 5.9%. This change occurred after the total number of employees decreased by 2.2 thousand people, while in the previous month there was an increase of 40.7 thousand with a forecast of 25.9 thousand. In particular, full—time employment decreased by 0.7 thousand, and part-time employment - by 1.6 thousand, with the share of the economically active population unchanged at 65.3%.In the USA, on the contrary, unemployment decreased from 3.9% to 3.8%, due to an increase in the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector by 303 thousand compared to 270 thousand in the previous month, and in the private sector by 232 thousand, instead of the expected 207 thousand. This led to an increase in the index of labor market trends from 111.85 to 112.84 points, which should have a positive impact on the value of the US dollar.Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3720.Support levels: 1.3530, 1.3380.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD currency pair is showing moderate growth, continuing to develop the active bullish trend observed in recent days, which regularly leads to an update of maximum values: at the moment, the price is testing the level of 2345.00 for a possible upward breakout, in anticipation of new catalysts in the market.The focus of investors' attention is the upcoming publication of March inflation data in the United States. The annual consumer price index is expected to accelerate from 3.2% to 3.4%, which may put pressure on the US Federal Reserve to abandon its conservative monetary strategy. The monthly index is expected to decrease from 0.4% to 0.3%, and core inflation will also adjust from 0.4% to 0.3% and from 3.8% to 3.7%. On the same day, the minutes of the Fed's March meeting are expected to be released, which will help clarify the regulator's plans for monetary policy. The main expectation of investors remains a possible interest rate cut as early as June, and at least three adjustments before the end of 2024, although the postponement of the beginning of monetary easing to the end of the year is now being actively considered.Resistance levels: 2353.79, 2375.00, 2400.00, 2425.00.Support levels: 2336.50, 2320.00, 2300.00, 2285.00.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices continue to show potential for growth, remaining at 91.07 amid growing fears that the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas could lead to disruptions in supplies from oil-producing countries in the Middle East.Earlier, oil prices fell amid reports of a decrease in geopolitical tensions: last weekend, Israel announced plans for a partial withdrawal of troops from the southern Gaza Strip, as well as the resumption of peace talks under the auspices of Egypt, which temporarily led to a decrease in prices from 91.95 to 89.11. However, on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said about preparations for a possible invasion of Rafah, which inevitably renewed fears in the market and caused an increase in oil prices.Resistance levels: 91.95, 93.79, 96.22.Support levels: 89.10, 87.60, ...
The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...
The USD/CAD currency pair is a fully American quote, one of the ten most popular currency pairs on the Forex market.Lower volatility does not make this pair worse, but only on the contrary – more stable and interesting for trading.USD/CAD is often called the American equivalent of the European currency pair EUR/GBP.USD/CAD forecast for todayThe USD/CAD forecast is based on 20 indicators, four timeframes and signal strength levels. We recommend paying attention only to the strongest signal – Actively buy or Actively sell. Also, the best moment will be when this signal is repeated on all four timeframes.Visually, the USD/CAD chart does not have any distinctive features and is similar to most currencies of developed countries. Candles are formed smoothly, correctly forming shapes that are easy to read. There are no illiquidity artifacts and sharp jumps on the USD CAD chart. The price holds one direction for a long time before starting a correction or changing the trend. It is thanks to its convenience that USD/CAD is still popular along with the classic USD/EUR and GBP/USD.Read more: EUR/CAD: signals, forecasts, exchange rate chart (online) and quotesGeneral characteristicsUSD CAD chart The USD/CAD currency pair is a straight and four-digit quote and has four decimal places. Some brokers add a fifth sign, mostly only large brokers can do this for the convenience of their clients.The US dollar acts as the base currency, and the Canadian dollar is the quoted one.USD is the most popular and important currency on the planet. There are hundreds of factors of influence on the USD, which are very difficult to follow, so it is better to focus only on key macroeconomic indicators.CAD is considered a commodity currency, as it is strongly influenced by the prices of oil, coal, oil, non–ferrous and ferrous metals. It is better to analyze the quotation for the Canadian dollar.What does the USD CAD rate depend on?The financial policy of the United States and the dynamics of the US dollar have a serious impact on the changes in the exchange rate of the Canadian currency. Since Canada itself, in fact, borders the United States and is largely connected with the American economy, the national currency of this northern state is extremely susceptible to events taking place in the States. In particular, import and export figures to the United States have an impact. Global integration has not bypassed Canada either. This factor affects close cooperation with many countries of the region that are members of APEC (ARES). Periodic jumps in Canadian dollar quotes directly reflect the state of the Canadian financial system throughout the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries.The interest rate of the Canadian Bank is one of the key factors influencing the USD/CAD exchange rate.It should be understood that it is not the current rate that is important, but the possibility of changing it. The bottom line is that all the money in the market flows into more profitable assets, so an increase in the rate will lead to an increase in the Canadian dollar and vice versa. The rate will affect not only the USD/CAD currency pair, but also everything where CAD is involved.Indicators such as GDP, unemployment, inflation – will have an impact, but small, that is, they will have a strong impact only when the interest rate changes. If the rate is stable, then even a change in GDP indicators may not have a strong impact, since leading indicators such as retail sales come out before that, and new GDP data will only prove to be confirming.Read more: CAD/CHF: description, characteristics, trading forecasts and feautures of the pairCanada is in second place in the world in terms of oil reserves, so oil prices are of great importance for this quote. It is also worth clarifying that the main importer of Canadian oil is the United States, which is already closely linked to the Canadian economy. After the last crisis, the United States itself began to extract and export oil, so the share of Canadian oil exports to the United States has decreased and now CAD's dependence on oil exports has also fallen slightly, but nevertheless the Canadian dollar continues to correlate well with oil with a shift of 3-4 months.China is also a big consumer of Canadian raw materials, so it is possible to trace the responses to the USD/CAD quote after the release of important news in China.At the moment, Canada does not bind its currency at the legislative level, providing a regulatory function to the market. The main correction tool is a change in the key rate in the country. Thus, a trader can play on the difference in rates between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada.USD/CAD is often chosen by traders who trade on the news, as this currency pair reacts sharply to them, and news can be not only on the economies of countries, but also on oil and coal data.How best to trade on USDCADUSD CAD currency pair FOREX trading is conducted in standard lots, with a volume of $100,000, one item will cost $ 10. Brokers traditionally offer work with fractional lots and leverage, so even $100 is enough for an initial deposit. FOREX remains the preferred place to work with this tool.If you think that the US dollar has a more positive dynamics and a positive impact – the quote should be bought (for CAD).If you think that the Canadian dollar is receiving strong support (news, economy ...) – the quote should be sold (get rid of the cheaper dollar).Active trading takes place during the American session, but even after it closes, during the European trading session, moderate activity continues, which indicates the popularity of this quote. Sometimes the main trend may change at this time.Read more: CAD/CHF: description, characteristics, trading forecasts and feautures of the pairAt 15 minutes, it can be seen that the chart is replete with false breakouts and deep rebounds from pierced levels. However, this trend is smoothed out on the daily chart, and smooth trends can be observed. Accordingly, the work on breaking through will bring the greatest fruits in trading. If we return to short-term trading, then it is more convenient to use indicators such as RSI or CCI with hard stops, which will save the trader from going beyond the price range. Adherents of the Elliott theory will be able to find the point of application of the wave theory on the USD/CAD chart, thanks to their progressive and protracted movement.In general, USD/CAD trading can be divided into:Trading on trendTrading by support and resistance levelsTrading by newsThese are the main ways of working on this quote due to a more stable schedule and direct dependence on many macroeconomic indicators.The greatest volatility is observed from 7 to 10 in the morning.Features of the USD/CAD currency pairIn the jargon of traders, the USD/CAD rate is called "loonie". This name comes from a coin of one Canadian dollar, on the reverse of which is stamped a polar loon, which in English is called "Common Loon". An alternative name sounds like "foundations".Read more: AUD/CAD: exchange rate, online forecast, currency pair overviewThe Canadian dollar is a fairly popular currency, but despite this, it is not among the world's five reserve currencies, which makes it an exclusively regional monetary sign. The raw materials economy of Canada leaves an imprint on the dynamics of USD CAD, forcing it to react to news in the oil and woodworking industries especially acutely. In general, the currency retains its independence and refers to reliable investments, despite its partial dependence on the price of ...
Today we will talk about a fairly simple approach to Forex trading that even novice traders can use. We are talking about a strategy with the telling name "20 points a day”, according to which you can earn exactly 20 points every day. It sounds interesting, because this is 400 points of net profit per month. In fact, the vehicle can really be used in practice, but you should not expect to receive a daily profit. As in any other strategy, there will also be unprofitable orders, and one of the distinctive features of the method is the equal values of Stop Loss and Take Profit orders. In other words, when trading on the vehicle "20 points a day”, you can either earn or lose the same 20 points. The good news is that if the rules of the vehicle are followed, the number of successful orders is about 75%.Trading rulesThe characteristic features of the strategy include:Successful trading in the long term is possible only on the USD/CAD currency pair;The chart period is only M30;Use only standard (not custom) versions of indicators;Deals are opened on weekdays daily;You will need to open orders at exactly 11-00 GMT;The average transaction time rarely exceeds 3 hours;The values of the Stop Loss and Take Profit insurance orders must be equal and fixed;The maximum risk for each transaction should not exceed 2% of the deposit. To trade, you will need to open the price chart of the USD/CAD pair with the M30 period and put 2 indicators on it:A simple moving average with a period of 20 applied to the closing points (Close in the settings);Momentum oscillator with a period of 5 and an additional level of 100.As mentioned earlier, the transaction will need to be opened at exactly 11-00 GMT. At this time, the largest trading platforms in the EU are experiencing a peak in trading volumes, which favorably affects the formation of good, local trend movements. Signals for opening a Sell order:The Momentum oscillator curve is plotted below the 100 level set in the oscillator window;The price chart is formed below the moving average with a period of 20.To open a Buy order, the signals will be opposite:The oscillator line is built above the level of 100;The chart of the pair is built above the moving one with a period of 20.Important! The time of the trading terminal may differ from the time zone of the trader and depends on the location of the company's trading servers. It is very important to pay attention to this and not make mistakes with the opening time of orders. Otherwise, such inaccuracies may result in the loss of most of the deposit.Conclusion The “20 points a day" strategy is quite simple and effective. It has been tested by time and many successful traders. If a few years ago this vehicle was effective on almost any liquid currency pairs, now it is advisable to use it only on USD/CAD. On GBP/USD, AUD/USD and EUR/USD, the number of successfully closed orders is 50% or less. This trend is associated with a gradual increase in market volatility and it is quite possible that over the next 2 years it will be necessary to look for more effective filters for successful trading on this vehicle. But at the time of writing, the strategy remains working and nothing prevents novice traders from starting to apply it in practice right now.Read more: Volatility: types, how to track and how to ...